The invention relates to an urban road traffic demand prediction method considering road construction influence. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a motor vehicle historical travel OD matrix, a road section traffic volume and travel time in a peak hour in a prediction range; observing the running state of the vehicle during construction in the construction influence area during peak hours, and recording the observed traffic flow and the observed travel time of the vehicle passing through the construction influence area; determining a flow deviation influence factor in combination with the road grade of the construction influence road and the traffic flow; correcting the historical travel OD matrix by adopting a two-stage model according to the observed traffic flow of the vehicle passing through the construction influence area; and according to the observation travel time of the vehicle passing through the construction influence area, the travel time of the road section of the construction influence area is corrected, traffic distribution is performed again, and a traffic demand prediction result is obtained. Compared with the prior art, the urban road network traffic demand can be quickly and accurately predicted under the condition that the traffic capacity of a part of road sections is changed due to road construction.

    本发明涉及一种考虑道路施工影响的城市道路交通需求预测方法,包括:获取预测范围内高峰小时机动车历史出行OD矩阵、路段交通量与行程时间;观测高峰小时施工影响区域施工时的车辆运行状态,记录车辆通过施工影响区的观测交通流量与观测行程时间;结合施工影响道路的道路等级与交通流量,确定流量偏差影响因子;依据车辆通过施工影响区的观测交通流量,采用一个两阶段模型对历史出行OD矩阵进行修正;根据车辆通过施工影响区的观测行程时间,修正施工影响区路段的行程时间,并重新进行交通分配,得到交通需求预测结果。与现有技术相比,本发明能够在道路施工导致部分路段通行能力改变的情况下快速准确地预测城市道路网络交通需求。


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    Title :

    Urban road traffic demand prediction method considering road construction influence


    Additional title:

    一种考虑道路施工影响的城市道路交通需求预测方法


    Contributors:
    PENG QING (author) / GONG HUATIAN (author) / YANG XIAOGUANG (author)

    Publication date :

    2025-01-03


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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