The invention discloses an expressway rear-end collision risk and risk avoiding style real-time prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: 1, acquiring a continuous flow vehicle full-track data set of an expressway section to be predicted; 2, performing data preprocessing on the continuous flow vehicle full-track data set to obtain a final data set; 3, performing real-time prediction modeling according to a plurality of sudden characteristic parameters of the risk formation characteristics and the risk avoiding behavior characteristics, and explaining potential correlation between a risk conflict level and a longitudinal risk avoiding style by using a double-layer nested model; 4, estimating model parameters; solving model parameters through a maximum likelihood estimation method; 5, performing independent variable screening on the final data set, and removing non-significant independent variables; and 6, processing the data set by using the prediction model, and analyzing the relevance between the historical risk avoiding style and the current risk avoiding style. According to the invention, real-time and low-error prediction of the vehicle conflict risk level and the longitudinal risk avoiding style of the driver is realized.

    本发明公开了快速路追尾冲突风险与避险风格实时预测方法,包括如下步骤:1、获取要进行预测的快速路路段的连续流车辆全轨迹数据集;2、对连续流车辆全轨迹数据集进行数据预处理,得到最终数据集;3、根据风险形成特征和避险行为特征的多个突特征参数进行实时预测建模,运用双层巢式模型以解释风险冲突水平和纵向避险风格之间的潜在相关性;4、模型参数估计;通过极大似然估计方法来求解模型参数;5、对最终数据集进行自变量筛选,剔除不显著的自变量;6、使用预测模型处理数据集,解析历史避险风格和当前避险风格的关联性。本发明实现对车辆冲突风险水平和驾驶员纵向避险风格的实时、低误差预测。


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    Title :

    Expressway rear-end collision risk and risk avoiding style real-time prediction method


    Additional title:

    快速路追尾冲突风险与避险风格实时预测方法


    Contributors:
    HE LIYING (author) / YU CHUNHUI (author) / YAN YAN (author) / ZHAN YANG (author) / HU YUEHAI (author) / MIAO YUNTING (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-07-30


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung



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