The invention relates to an expressway accident risk real-time prediction method based on road section heterogeneity, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining the roadgeometric data of a target expressway, dividing the corresponding road section types, obtaining the historical accident data, and extracting the accident occurrence time; S2, according to the road section types and the accident occurrence time, calculating to obtain a main source of the expressway accident risk by combining a significance test and a random forest algorithm; S3, establishing an accident risk prediction model based on the main source of the expressway accident risk, obtaining traffic flow data and weather data in real time, inputting the traffic flow data and the weather data into the accident risk prediction model in combination with road geometric data, and outputting an accident risk prediction result; and S4, judging whether traffic control measures need to be taken or not according to the accident risk prediction result, if so, implementing a corresponding traffic control strategy, and otherwise, returning to the step S3. Compared with the prior art, the method hasthe advantages of being good in real-time performance, improving the accuracy and transportability of the accident risk prediction model and the like.

    本发明涉及一种基于路段异质性的快速路事故风险实时预测方法,具体包括以下步骤:S1.获取目标快速路的道路几何数据,以此划分相应的路段类型,并获取历史事故数据,提取事故发生时间;S2.根据路段类型和事故发生时间,结合显著性检验和随机森林算法,计算得到快速路事故风险的主要来源;S3.基于快速路事故风险的主要来源建立事故风险预测模型,实时获取交通流数据和天气数据,结合道路几何数据输入事故风险预测模型,输出获得事故风险预测结果;S4.根据事故风险预测结果,判断是否需要采取交通管控措施,若是则实施相应的交通管控策略,否则返回步骤S3。与现有技术相比,本发明具有实时性较好、提高事故风险预测模型的准确度与可移植性等优点。


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    Title :

    Expressway accident risk real-time prediction method based on road section heterogeneity


    Additional title:

    一种基于路段异质性的快速路事故风险实时预测方法


    Contributors:
    WANG LING (author) / WANG KANG (author) / MA WANJING (author) / YU CHUNHUI (author)

    Publication date :

    2021-02-26


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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