The invention discloses a demand response adjustable potential prediction method and system for an electric vehicle load group, and the method comprises the following steps: 1, predicting the charging starting time and charging duration of an electric vehicle in different scenes based on the charging habit of an electric vehicle user, and obtaining the joint probability distribution functions of the electric vehicle in different scenes; step 2, based on the joint probability distribution function, counting the charging power of the electric vehicle in the region at different moments; and step 3, sampling all the electric vehicles in the region by adopting a Monte Carlo method, and calculating the total demand of all the electric vehicles in the sample and the region regulation potential. According to the method, the charging events of the electric vehicle under different conditions can be accurately modeled, so that the calculation result is accurate, reliable and based.

    一种电动汽车负荷群的需求响应可调潜力预测方法及系统,其中,方法包括以下步骤:步骤1,基于电动汽车用户的充电习惯对不同场景下电动汽车的充电起始时间、充电时长进行预测,分别获得不同场景下电动汽车的联合概率分布函数;步骤2,基于所述联合概率分布函数统计不同时刻下区域内电动汽车的充电功率;步骤3,对区域内的所有电动汽车采用蒙特卡洛法进行抽样,并计算抽样样本中所有电动汽车的总需求,以及区域调节潜力。本发明方法能够对不同情况下电动汽车的充电事件进行准确的建模,从而使得计算结果准确,可靠,有依据。


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    Title :

    Demand response adjustable potential prediction method and system for electric vehicle load group


    Additional title:

    一种电动汽车负荷群的需求响应可调潜力预测方法及系统


    Contributors:
    ZHANG BAOQUN (author) / GONG CHENG (author) / LI YIFEI (author) / YU ZHAO (author) / LI TIANLE (author) / WANG FANG (author) / MA HAO (author) / YANG YAQI (author)

    Publication date :

    2022-07-12


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    B60L PROPULSION OF ELECTRICALLY-PROPELLED VEHICLES , Antrieb von elektrisch angetriebenen Fahrzeugen / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / H02J CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER , Schaltungsanordnungen oder Systeme für die Abgabe oder Verteilung elektrischer Leistung



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