Road traffic fatalities account for the maximum portion of total production accident fatalities in China, although they exhibit steady annual reductions in recent years. Road traffic accident forecast is a core component of a target setting which proves to be an effective measure to improve road safety by the best-performing countries. In this paper, a traffic accident prediction model aimed to set road safety targets is proposed. Based on cointegration analysis of Chinese crash and economic data, the model avoids spurious regression and shows a satisfactory precision. The prediction results can be a good reference to policymakers on their target setting.


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    Title :

    Road Traffic Accident Forecasts Based on Cointegration Analysis


    Contributors:
    Yu, Qing (author) / Guo, Zhongyin (author)

    Conference:

    Fifth International Conference on Transportation Engineering ; 2015 ; Dailan, China


    Published in:

    ICTE 2015 ; 2993-2998


    Publication date :

    2015-09-25




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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