Road traffic fatalities account for the maximum portion of total production accident fatalities in China, although they exhibit steady annual reductions in recent years. Road traffic accident forecast is a core component of a target setting which proves to be an effective measure to improve road safety by the best-performing countries. In this paper, a traffic accident prediction model aimed to set road safety targets is proposed. Based on cointegration analysis of Chinese crash and economic data, the model avoids spurious regression and shows a satisfactory precision. The prediction results can be a good reference to policymakers on their target setting.


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    Titel :

    Road Traffic Accident Forecasts Based on Cointegration Analysis


    Beteiligte:
    Yu, Qing (Autor:in) / Guo, Zhongyin (Autor:in)

    Kongress:

    Fifth International Conference on Transportation Engineering ; 2015 ; Dailan, China


    Erschienen in:

    ICTE 2015 ; 2993-2998


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2015-09-25




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



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