In this paper, the fuel savings, relative initial costs, and breakeven gasoline prices for mid-sized passenger cars utilizing advanced powertrains in 2015-2045 are compared to those using conventional and advanced engine/transmission power trains that would be available in the same time periods. The advanced powertrains considered are hybridelectric (HEV and PHEV) and all-electric powered by batteries alone or by a hydrogen fuel cell. Large fuel savings compared to 2007 conventional passenger cars are projected by 2030 for all the advanced powertrains ranging from 45% with advanced engines in conventional vehicles to 60% in hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs). The energy savings (combined gasoline and wall-plug electricity) for the PHEVs were 62% for the PHEV-20 and 75% for the PHEV-40. The energy saving for the FCHEV was 72% and for the BEV was 79%. The cost analyzes of the various advanced powertrains compared to the 2007 baseline vehicle indicated the most cost-effective was the HEV with a breakeven gasoline price of 2.50- 3.00/gal gasoline for a five year payback period, 4% discount rate, and 12,000 miles/year. This was even lower than that for the conventional vehicles using the same advanced, high efficiency engine. In the case of the PHEV with the small battery, the break-even gasoline price is in the same range as that of the HEV only when the retail battery cost is about 400/kWh and the time period of the calculation is 10 years, the assumed lifetime of the battery. For the PHEV with the large battery, a retail battery cost of 300/kWh and at least a 10-year life is needed to make the vehicle cost competitive with either the small-battery PHEV or the HEV. However, the fuel and energy savings using the large-battery PHEV are the highest among the advanced hybrid vehicles considered. The economics of battery-powered, 100 mile range vehicles were analyzed for battery costs between 300-700/kWh. The breakeven gasoline prices for the BEVs are higher than for the other advanced vehicles being 4-5/gal even for the 300/kWh batteries. The economic results for the FCHEVs indicate that target fuel cell costs of 30-50/kW, 10-year life, and hydrogen prices in the 2.50- 3.00/kgH2 range make fuel cell vehicles cost competitive with HEVs and ICE vehicles using advanced engines. It is of interest to consider the breakeven gasoline prices of the BEV, PHEV-40, and FCHEV using the Advanced ICE and HEV vehicles as the baseline. These comparisons indicate that none of the electric drive vehicles with large batteries, even at the lowest battery cost of 300/kWh, are economically attractive relative to the Adv. ICE and HEV vehicles. This is especially true of the BEVs. As expected the breakeven gasoline prices are highest when the HEV is used as the baseline. The FCHEV is the most attractive of the electric drive vehicles when compared to the HEV.
Energy saving and cost projections for advanced hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell vehicles in 2015-2030
EVS, Electric Vehicle Symposium, 26 ; 2166-2177
2012
12 Seiten, 1 Bild, 9 Tabellen, 15 Quellen
Conference paper
English
Antriebsstrang , automatisches Getriebe , Energiesparen , Kraftstoffeinsparung , Personenkraftwagen , Fahrzeugmotor , Wasserstoffbrennstoffzelle , Elektrofahrzeug , Elektrizität , Sendeleistung , Energieübertragung , Hybridfahrzeug , Brennstoffzellenfahrzeug , Wasserstoff , batterieelektrisches Fahrzeug
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