The decision for the International Space Station to perform a maneuver to avoid orbital debris will be based upon a predicted collision probability. The collision probability will be calculated using real-time best estimates of the debris and ISS position state and position error covariance, propagated to the anticipated time of conjunction, or time of closest approach (TCA). If the computed collision probability exceeds a threshold value, the Red Threshold, a maneuver will be performed unless prevented by other operational considerations. The debris position and its uncertainty, propagated to TCA, will be supplied by United States Space Command, by processing observations from its Space Surveillance Network. Given the distribution of position errors for a space vehicle and the debris population, it is possible to calculate both the anticipated maneuver rate and the residual risk resulting from the choice of a maneuver threshold. The lower the probability threshold, the more maneuvers will be performed. However, no matter how many maneuvers are performed, risk can never be completely eliminated. Further, the performance of a debris avoidance maneuver disrupts the operation of the ISS micro-gravity laboratory and also complicates altitude management for ISS. Clearly the need is to achieve the maximum possible risk reduction while maintaining a sustainable maneuver rate.
ISS Debris Avoidance Maneuver Threshold Analysis
2007
48 pages
Report
No indication
English
AVOIDANCE VEHICLE MANEUVER ASSIST SYSTEM AND AVOIDANCE MANEUVER ASSIST METHOD
European Patent Office | 2021
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