An Expert system for Shipboard Obscuration Prediction (AESOP), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to forecasting maritime visibility obscurations, has been designed, developed, and tested. AESOP is rule-based, using backward chaining. The current version, AESOP 2.1, has 290 rules and has been designed in terms of nowcasts (0-1 hr) and forecasts (1-6 hr). An extensive explanation feature allows the user to understand the reasoning process behind a particular forecast. AESOP has been evaluated against 100 independent test cases, in which clear, hazy, or foggy conditions are predicted. The overall performance of AESOP is 68% correct. This value indicates considerable forecast skill when compared to 36% for random chance. When the distinction between clear and haze is ignored, the expert system correctly forecasts 79% of the Fog/No fog situations.


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    Title :

    Expert System Approach for Prediction of Maritime Visibility Obscuration


    Contributors:
    J. A. Peak (author)

    Publication date :

    1990


    Size :

    8 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




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