An Expert system for Shipboard Obscuration Prediction (AESOP), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to forecasting maritime visibility obscurations, has been designed, developed, and tested. AESOP is rule-based, using backward chaining. The current version, AESOP 2.1, has 290 rules and has been designed in terms of nowcasts (0-1 hr) and forecasts (1-6 hr). An extensive explanation feature allows the user to understand the reasoning process behind a particular forecast. AESOP has been evaluated against 100 independent test cases, in which clear, hazy, or foggy conditions are predicted. The overall performance of AESOP is 68% correct. This value indicates considerable forecast skill when compared to 36% for random chance. When the distinction between clear and haze is ignored, the expert system correctly forecasts 79% of the Fog/No fog situations.
Expert System Approach for Prediction of Maritime Visibility Obscuration
1990
8 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Meteorological Data Collection, Analysis, & Weather , Ocean Sciences & Technology , Marine & Waterway Transportation , Weather forecasting , Fog , Haze , Marine meteorology , Expert systems , Short range(Time) , Reprints , Observation , Shipboard , Now casting , AESOP Computer program , Rule based systems
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SAE Technical Papers | 2020
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