PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enhance the prediction accuracy of movable body operation as much as possible.SOLUTION: An operation prediction system for predicting an operation state of a movable body, comprises a statistic calculation unit for calculating an average value of a prediction error, a distribution value, and a covariance value in relation to a sample of the movable body determined by a designated operation place and an operation time range for a prediction error which is an error between an initial prediction value for data relating to an operation state of the movable body and an actual value provided via actual operation with respect to the data, and a predictive calculation unit for calculating a prediction value of the data on the operation state of the movable body by using the average value of the prediction error, the distribution value and the covariance value calculated by the statistic calculation unit in combination for a group of two or more different samples so that the distribution value of the error is minimized.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1
【課題】移動体の運行予測精度を可及的に高める。【解決手段】移動体の運行状況を予測するための運行予測システムであって、前記移動体の運行状況に関わるデータについての初期予測値と、前記データについて実際の運行を通じて得られた実績値との誤差である予測誤差について、指定された運行場所と運行時間範囲とで定まる前記移動体のサンプルに関し、前記予測誤差の平均値、分散値、及び共分散値を算出する統計計算部と、2以上の異なる前記サンプルのグループについて前記統計計算部が算出した前記予測誤差の平均値、分散値、及び共分散値を誤差の分散値が最小となるように組み合わせて利用することにより前記移動体の運行状況に関わるデータの予測値を算出する予測計算部とを備えている。【選択図】 図1
OPERATION PREDICTION SYSTEM, OPERATION PREDICTION METHOD AND OPERATION PREDICTION PROGRAM
運行予測システム、運行予測方法、及び運行予測プログラム
2017-10-05
Patent
Electronic Resource
Japanese
IPC: | B61L Leiten des Eisenbahnverkehrs , GUIDING RAILWAY TRAFFIC / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES |
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