The invention discloses an urban expressway traffic accident occurrence probability prediction method, device and product, and relates to the technical field of safe driving. The method comprises the following steps: performing validity detection and missing data estimation on each piece of traffic flow information to obtain first feature data; determining second feature data according to the accident record set and the GPS track set; calculating third and fourth feature data according to the second feature data; obtaining a fusion average speed based on the third and fourth feature data; inputting the fusion average speed and the four feature data into a prediction model to obtain a traffic accident occurrence probability; processing the traffic accident occurrence probability and the four feature data to obtain a training set; and training and optimizing the prediction model by adopting the training set to obtain an optimized model, and predicting by adopting the optimized model. The method can fully reflect the influence of the traffic flow states in different spatial ranges on the accident occurrence risk, predicts the possibility of the accident occurrence in real time, and gives an early warning for the occurrence of the accident.

    本发明公开一种城市快速路交通事故发生概率的预测方法、设备及产品,涉及安全驾驶技术领域。所述方法包括:对各车流信息进行有效性检测和缺失数据估计得到第一特征数据;根据事故记录集合以及GPS轨迹集合确定第二特征数据;根据第二特征数据计算第三和第四特征数据;基于第三和第四特征数据得到融合平均速度;将融合平均速度和四个特征数据输入预测模型得到交通事故发生概率;对交通事故发生概率和四个特征数据进行处理得到训练集;采用训练集对预测模型进行训练并优化得到优化后的模型,采用优化后的模型进行预测。本发明可充分反映不同空间范围的交通流状态对于事故发生风险的影响,实时预测事故发生的可能,对事故的发生做出提前预警。


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    Title :

    Method, device and product for predicting probability of occurrence of traffic accidents on urban expressway


    Additional title:

    城市快速路交通事故发生概率的预测方法、设备及产品


    Contributors:
    HE HAIJIE (author) / YAO YICHONG (author) / CAO JIXING (author) / TIAN MAOLIN (author) / YU ZIYING (author) / CAO JIANBIN (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-09-20


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES



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