The invention belongs to the technical field of rail transit operation management, and particularly relates to an urban rail transit OD passenger flow estimation method and system. Comprising the following steps: acquiring historical pull-in passenger flow and historical OD passenger flow of a station; inputting the historical pull-in passenger flow of the station into the pull-in passenger flow prediction model to obtain a pull-in passenger flow prediction result of the station in the future time granularity; calculating passenger flow separation rates of different time granularities of the station under date and time period attribute conditions based on historical OD passenger flow; constructing a state space model for predicting the OD passenger flow of the station in the corresponding time granularity in the future according to the pull-in passenger flow prediction result of the station and the passenger flow separation rate; and solving the state space model to obtain an OD passenger flow prediction result of the station in the corresponding time granularity in the future under the attribute difference of the date and the time period. According to the method, accurate prediction can be carried out fully according to the time attribute of the passenger flow time period and the space attribute of the passenger flow place, and the prediction accuracy of the OD passenger flow is greatly improved.

    本发明属于轨道交通运营管理技术领域,尤其涉及一种城市轨道交通OD客流估计方法及系统;包括:获取站点的历史进站客流以及历史OD客流;将站点的历史进站客流输入至进站客流预测模型中,得到站点在未来时间粒度内的进站客流预测结果;基于历史OD客流计算该站点在日期和时段属性条件下不同时间粒度的客流分离率;根据站点的进站客流预测结果以及客流分离率构建用于预测站点在未来相应时间粒度内OD客流的状态空间模型;对状态空间模型进行求解得到日期和时段属性差异下站点在未来相应时间粒度内的OD客流预测结果。本发明能够充分根据客流时段的时间属性以及客流地点的空间属性进行准确的预测,大大提高了对OD客流的预测准确性。


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    Title :

    Urban rail transit OD passenger flow estimation method and system


    Additional title:

    一种城市轨道交通OD客流估计方法及系统


    Contributors:
    SONG QIANG (author) / LI JINNA (author) / LIU HUI (author) / WANG CHONG (author) / ZHANG LINGTAO (author) / XU HONGMING (author) / XU WANG (author) / ZHANG HANFEI (author) / ZHANG TINGTING (author) / GUI DAZHUANG (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-01-30


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen



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