The invention relates to an electric vehicle charging load space-time distribution prediction method and system. According to the method, information of a road network, vehicles, users and the like is firstly summarized according to actual conditions, and according to a Monte Carlo method, information of an initial position and an initial charge state of an EV, a user residence place, a working place, trip chain distribution and the like is simulated; reasonably constructing a semi-dynamic traffic network model and an energy consumption model which are suitable for a multi-stage traffic network and power grid interactive modeling process; by analyzing the influence of multi-source factors such as electricity price, climate and season and user psychology on traffic flow of a traffic network, energy consumption conditions of various vehicle types, travel willingness of users of various vehicle types, charging requirements, travel time and path selection, the models are corrected to improve prediction precision; finally, summarized information is input into a program for simulation, and prediction results of road traffic flow and EV charging load space-time distribution are obtained. The method can help to analyze the influence on the construction of an urban traffic network and a power grid after the EV is widely popularized.
本发明涉及一种电动汽车充电负荷时空分布预测方法及系统。本发明贴合实际情况先将路网、车辆、用户等信息汇总,并根据蒙特卡洛方法,模拟EV的初始位置、初始荷电状态以及用户居住地、工作地、出行链分布等信息;再合理地构建适用于多阶段的交通网与电网交互建模过程的半动态交通网模型和能耗模型,并通过分析电价、气候和季节这些多源因素和用户心理对交通网交通流、各车型能耗情况、各车型用户出行意愿、充电需求以及出行时间与路径选择的影响对各模型进行修正来提高预测的精度;最后将汇总的信息输入程序进行仿真,得到道路交通流和EV充电负荷时空分布的预测结果。本发明能够帮助分析EV大量推广后对城市交通网与电网建设带来的影响。
Electric vehicle charging load space-time distribution prediction method and system
电动汽车充电负荷时空分布预测方法及系统
2023-11-10
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
IPC: | G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / B60L PROPULSION OF ELECTRICALLY-PROPELLED VEHICLES , Antrieb von elektrisch angetriebenen Fahrzeugen / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / H02J CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER , Schaltungsanordnungen oder Systeme für die Abgabe oder Verteilung elektrischer Leistung |
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