The invention provides a regional ship traffic flow prediction method and system, and the method comprises the steps: firstly obtaining AIS data of different types of ships, carrying out the preprocessing, drawing a density thermodynamic diagram, and selecting a plurality of target regions from the density thermodynamic diagram; according to the current longitude and latitude coordinates of the ships in the preprocessed AIS data and the coordinates of the vertexes forming the target areas, the number of the ships in the target areas is automatically judged at set intervals by adopting a ray method, and then ship coefficient conversion is carried out on the number of the ships of different types in the target areas based on the AIS data; and finally, according to the ship flow data, based on a Chebyshev network and a long short-term memory network, establishing a ship flow prediction model, and according to the ship flow prediction model, predicting the ship flow of each type of ship in each region in a certain time period in the future. And the accuracy of regional ship traffic flow prediction is effectively improved.

    本发明提供了一种面向区域船舶交通流量预测方法及系统,先获取不同类型船舶的AIS数据并进行预处理及绘制密度热力图,在密度热力图中框选出多个目标区域,并根据预处理后的AIS数据中船舶当前的经纬度坐标和构成各个目标区域的各顶点坐标,每隔一段时间采用射线法自动判断出在各个目标区域内的船舶数量,然后基于AIS数据对各个目标区域内不同类型船舶的船舶数量进行船舶系数换算,得到各个目标区域内各类型船舶的船舶流量数据,最后根据船舶流量数据并基于切比雪夫网络和长短期记忆网络建立船舶流量预测模型,根据船舶流量预测模型预测出未来某个时间段内各个区域各类型船舶的船舶流量,有效提升了区域船舶交通流量预测的准确性。


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    Title :

    Regional ship traffic flow prediction method and system


    Additional title:

    一种面向区域船舶交通流量预测方法及系统


    Contributors:
    CHEN XINQIANG (author) / HAN BING (author) / WU ZHONGDAI (author) / WANG BINGDE (author) / WANG QIUYING (author)

    Publication date :

    2023-10-13


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES



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