The invention discloses a road network speed prediction and anomaly recognition method based on a damping Holt model, and the method comprises the steps: (1) carrying out the anomaly recognition and restoration of problem data according to the historical road network traffic speed data detected by a geomagnetic device, and carrying out the processing of an abnormal value in the traffic speed data through employing an absolute value difference median, a space-time regression model is used for repairing missing data; (2) predicting the road network speed quantity in a period of time in the future, establishing a model for the road network speed quantity according to historical road network speed, and predicting the road network speed quantity in the future; and (3) aiming at the difference between the real-time speed quantity and the historical road network speed caused by the sudden road network flow of a certain road section in the road network traffic system, establishing an early warning mechanism to realize the preset advance early warning, and carrying out early warning on the abnormal sudden road network speed and sending out a signal. The road network speed prediction and anomaly identification method provided by the invention can perform early warning on the formation and future development trend of the abnormal road network speed, and can perform early warning with enough advance.
本发明公开了一种基于阻尼Holt模型的路网速度预测及异常识别方法,(1)针对地磁设备检测到的路网历史交通速度数据对问题数据进行异常识别和修复,使用绝对值差中位数对交通速度数据中的异常值进行处理,使用时空回归模型对缺失数据进行修复;(2)预测未来一段时间的路网速度量,对于路网速度量,根据历史路网速度建立模型,对未来的路网速度量进行预测;(3)针对路网交通系统中某路段的突发路网流量造成实时速度量与历史路网速度具有差异,建立预警机制实现预定提前量早期预警,对异常突发路网速度进行预警并发出信号。本发明提出的路网速度预测及异常识别方法,能对异常路网速度的形成及未来发展趋势进行预警,并做出足够提前量的早期预警。
Road network speed prediction and anomaly identification method based on damping Holt model
一种基于阻尼Holt模型的路网速度预测及异常识别方法
2022-10-21
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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