The invention relates to the technical field of road speed interval prediction methods, and discloses a road speed interval prediction method based on a GARCH model, and the method comprises the steps: data preparation and preprocessing, GARCH model construction, model diagnosis and optimization, speed interval prediction, and prediction result evaluation and application. The data preparation and preprocessing comprises the steps of collecting road speed time sequence data, then cleaning the data to remove abnormal and missing values, ensuring the data quality, and converting the data into a format suitable for a GARCH model. According to the road speed interval prediction method based on the GARCH model, the accuracy and integrity of the road speed time sequence data are ensured through the steps of preparing and preprocessing the data by the GARCH model, a reliable guarantee is provided for subsequent model construction, deep fluctuation aggregation analysis is performed on the traffic flow speed sequence through the GARCH model, and the prediction accuracy of the road speed interval is improved. And a Bayesian inference method is adopted.

    本发明涉及道路速度区间预测方法技术领域,且公开了基于GARCH模型的道路速度区间预测方法,包括数据准备与预处理、GARCH模型构建、模型进行诊断与优化、进行速度区间预测、评估预测结果并应用;所述数据准备与预处理包括采集道路速度时间序列数据,随后清洗数据以剔除异常和缺失值,确保数据质量,并转换成GARCH模型适用的格式。该基于GARCH模型的道路速度区间预测方法,通过GARCH模型对数据的准备与预处理步骤,确保了道路速度时间序列数据的准确性和完整性,为后续模型构建提供了可靠保障,通过GARCH模型对交通流速度序列进行深入的波动聚集性分析,并通过贝叶斯推断的方法。


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    Title :

    Road speed interval prediction method based on GARCH model


    Additional title:

    基于GARCH模型的道路速度区间预测方法


    Contributors:
    LU GUANG (author) / LI WENYONG (author) / LI JUNZHUO (author) / LIAN GUAN (author)

    Publication date :

    2025-03-21


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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