The invention discloses a method for estimating accident severity by environmental factors in an expressway exit ramp area. The method comprises the following steps of firstly, according to accident data of an expressway exit ramp, selecting relevant environmental factors in the expressway exit ramp area as independent variables, and integrating and screening the independent variables; selecting complete accident data meeting requirements to establish an accident sample database for training the decision tree; in a decision tree prediction model, sensitivity analysis being introduced, each input variable in the model being changed, the change of an output result being observed, the output slope being regarded as the average variable influence of independent variables, and a non-binary discrete variable R2 of a straight fitting line of a prediction result representing the nonlinear influence of the independent variables on the prediction result. The method can accurately and strictly reflect the influence of environmental factors of the exit ramp area of the expressway on the accident severity, facilitates diagnosis of a traffic safety problem of the exit ramp, and is of great significance to improvement of safety of the exit ramp and the whole expressway.

    本发明公开了一种高速公路出口匝道区域环境要素对事故严重程度估计方法,首先高速公路出口匝道的事故数据,选择高速公路出口匝道区域相关环境要素作为自变量,并进行整合与筛除,选择满足要求的完整事故数据建立事故样本数据库,用于对决策树进行训练;在决策树预测模型中,引入敏感度分析,改变模型中的每个输入变量并观察输出结果的变化,将输出的斜率视为自变量的平均可变影响,预测结果的直线拟合线的非二元离散变量R2表示自变量对预测结果的非线性影响。本发明可以精确严谨地反映高速公路出口匝道区域环境要素对事故严重程度的影响,这有助于诊断出口匝道存在的交通安全问题,对提高出口匝道以及整个高速公路安全性具有重要意义。


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    Title :

    Method for estimating accident severity by environmental factors of expressway exit ramp area


    Additional title:

    高速公路出口匝道区域环境要素对事故严重程度估计方法


    Contributors:
    YU JINGWEI (author) / HUANG KAILIN (author) / SHI RONGZHEN (author)

    Publication date :

    2021-02-09


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06K Erkennen von Daten , RECOGNITION OF DATA / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES



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