The invention provides a short-time ship traffic flow prediction method, and the method comprises the following steps: (1) collecting ship traffic flow data, and carrying out the initialization of theparameters of a group density particle swarm algorithm; (2) randomly generating particle positions and speeds in a particle swarm; (3) setting a fitness function of a particle swarm; (4) calculatingthe increment of the particles, and randomly generating the same number of particles to be added into the particle swarm when a positive value is obtained; otherwise, calculating the fitness value ofeach particle, and deleting the corresponding number of particles with the minimum fitness; (5) updating the position and the speed of the particle swarm by adopting a PSO algorithm, and updating theindividual optimal point and the global optimal point; (6) obtaining an optimal SVR parameter combination; and (7) predicting the short-time ship flow based on the optimal SVR parameter combination. Therefore, the defects that the convergence rate of the traditional particle swarm algorithm is obviously reduced in the later period of evolution and the algorithm cannot be continuously optimized when the algorithm converges to a certain precision can be overcome, and the prediction precision can be effectively improved.

    本发明提供了一种短时船舶交通流预测方法,(1)采集船舶交通流数据,对群密度粒子群算法的参数进行初始化;(2)随机产生粒子群中的粒子位置及速度;(3)设置粒子群的适应度函数(4)计算粒子的增长量,正值时随机产生相同数目的粒子加入粒子群;否则计算各个粒子的适应值,删除适应度最小的相应数目的粒子;(5)采用PSO算法进行粒子群位置和速度的更新,并且更新个体最优点和全局最优点;(6)获取最优的SVR参数组合;(7)基于最优的SVR参数组合对短时船舶流量进行预测。因此能够克服传统的粒子群算法在进化后期收敛速度明显变慢,以及算法收敛到一定精度时,算法无法继续优化的缺点,可以有效的提高预测的精度。


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    Title :

    Short-time ship traffic flow prediction method and device and storage medium


    Additional title:

    一种短时船舶交通流预测方法、装置及存储介质


    Contributors:
    QIN PENGFEI (author) / CHEN JUNHAO (author) / CHENG YUNLONG (author) / TU BO (author) / YANG JICENG (author) / LIU YIHUA (author)

    Publication date :

    2020-09-25


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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