The invention relates to a short-time traffic flow grey prediction method, which belongs to the technical field of traffic flow prediction, and comprises the following steps: S1, inputting an original matrix sequence of a traffic flow q (0) and a speed u (0) passing through a road section; s2, processing an original matrix sequence, calculating first-order accumulation generation sequences q (1) and u (1), and calculating a partial derivative of the first-order accumulation sequence q (1); s3, constructing a short-time traffic flow partial grey prediction model TFDMPGM (1, 2) r, constructing matrixes B and Y, and calculating the value of a parameter estimation vector # imgabs0 #; s4, calculating a simulation value and a prediction value # imgabs1; S5, checking a prediction effect through an average absolute percentage error (MAPE); and S6, if the simulation result passes the error test, predicting the future trend by adopting an iterative recursion method, otherwise, returning to the step S1.

    本发明涉及一种短时交通流偏灰色预测方法,属于交通流预测技术领域,包括以下步骤:S1:输入通过一个路段的车流量q(0)和速度u(0)的原始矩阵序列;S2:对原始矩阵序列进行处理,计算一阶累加生成序列q(1)和u(1),计算一阶累加序列q(1)的偏导数;S3:构造短时交通流偏灰色预测模型TFDMPGM(1,2)r,并构造矩阵B、Y,计算参数估计向量#imgabs0#的值;S4:计算模拟值和预测值#imgabs1#S5:通过平均绝对百分比误差MAPE来检验预测效果;S6:如果模拟结果通过误差检验,则采用迭代递推的方法对未来趋势进行预测,反之则返回步骤S1。


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    Title :

    Short-time traffic flow grey prediction method


    Additional title:

    一种短时交通流偏灰色预测方法


    Contributors:
    XIE DERONG (author) / CHEN HONGLI (author) / DUAN HUIMING (author)

    Publication date :

    2024-12-10


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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