The invention discloses a highway traffic flow speed prediction method based on a traffic factor state network, and the method comprises the steps: selecting a prediction road segment, and obtaining the historical data of traffic parameters in the road segment; processing the data into a traffic parameter time sequence with a fixed step length according to an average distribution principle; performing clustering analysis on the sequence to obtain an environmental impact factor; randomly selecting historical data under a certain environmental influence factor, and constructing a random model byusing a high-order multivariate Markov chain theory; and predicting the driving speed by using the model. According to the method, the concept of a traffic factor state network is utilized, availabledata resources are utilized, captured speed and flow data serve as system factors, a large amount of traffic data is analyzed through clustering, and the environmental influence factors are estimated. A traffic factor state network is established to simulate inherent complex spaces, time relations, internal relations among traffic data and influences of actual traffic environments in a traffic network, so that a prediction result is more accurate and is close to reality.
本发明公开了一种基于交通因子状态网络的高速公路交通流速度预测方法,包括:选定预测路段,获取该路段中交通参数的历史数据;根据平均分布原则,将数据处理为步长固定的交通参数时间序列;对该序列进行聚类分析,获取环境影响因子;随机选取某一环境影响因子下的历史数据,利用高阶多元马尔科夫链理论构建随机模型;利用该模型进行行车速度预测。本发明利用交通因子状态网络的概念,利用可用的数据资源,将捕获的速度,流量数据作为系统因子,通过聚类分析大量的交通数据,估计出环境影响因子。建立交通因子状态网络来模拟交通网络中固有的复杂空间、时间关系、交通数据之间的内在联系,以及实际交通环境的影响,使得预测结果更准确且贴合实际。
Highway traffic flow speed prediction method based on traffic factor state network
基于交通因子状态网络的高速公路交通流速度预测方法
2020-09-11
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES |