The invention provides a bus arrival time forecasting method. The bus arrival time forecasting method comprises the following steps of (1) acquiring data of a current position of a bus and extracting data of all bus stations behind the current position from a bus route database; (2) acquiring a gather of bus stations which are distant from each station within a distance (d) from the bus route database; (3) screening a secondary station gather of which the direction is the same with that of a current route from the gather of the bus stations in the step (2); (4) extracting arrival time of the bus on various routes in the secondary station gather from a bus running record; and (5) performing exponential average operation on arrival time of the secondary station gather and using an operation time as a forecasted arrival time of the bus at this time. By the bus arrival time forecasting method, a sample of the same route is added, and a calculation basis is added; and moreover, by an exponential average method, influences of historical data on a current result are considered, possible road crowding change of current time is also considered, a final calculation result is accurate and reliable, and a calculation process is efficient.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Bus arrival time forecasting method


    Contributors:
    YOU MINGQI (author) / YANG CAIHAO (author) / YU WEI (author)

    Publication date :

    2015-07-22


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



    Bus arrival time forecasting method and device

    LIU GANG / LI KUNPENG / LIU ZHENDING et al. | European Patent Office | 2016

    Free access

    Forecasting Flight Arrival Times

    Naylor, J. / Bailey, C. / International Federation of Operational Research Societies; Airline Group | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995


    Bus arrival forecasting method, device and system

    LI GUANGYU / CHEN MOHAN / YANG HAIJUN et al. | European Patent Office | 2024

    Free access

    Forecasting Train Arrival Time Using Modular Artificial Neural Networks

    Cho, H. / Rilett, L. R. / American Society of Civil Engineers | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2002