The invention provides a bus arrival time forecasting method. The bus arrival time forecasting method comprises the following steps of (1) acquiring data of a current position of a bus and extracting data of all bus stations behind the current position from a bus route database; (2) acquiring a gather of bus stations which are distant from each station within a distance (d) from the bus route database; (3) screening a secondary station gather of which the direction is the same with that of a current route from the gather of the bus stations in the step (2); (4) extracting arrival time of the bus on various routes in the secondary station gather from a bus running record; and (5) performing exponential average operation on arrival time of the secondary station gather and using an operation time as a forecasted arrival time of the bus at this time. By the bus arrival time forecasting method, a sample of the same route is added, and a calculation basis is added; and moreover, by an exponential average method, influences of historical data on a current result are considered, possible road crowding change of current time is also considered, a final calculation result is accurate and reliable, and a calculation process is efficient.
Bus arrival time forecasting method
2015-07-22
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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