The aim of the study is to estimate the air travel demand forecast of domestic passengers’ travels in Nigeria from 2002-2016. Data wesourced from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, and Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria. The study utilized multiple regressions model using Stata-Graphic software solver to analyze the data. From the analysis, the result shows that there is significant relationship between the explanatory variable (passengers) and unexplanatory variables National Disposable Income, Population, Average Airfare, Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, Total Expenditure, and Crude oil price, accounted for adjusted R of 93.624% relationship with demand for domestic air travel of passenger. The R-square statistic shows that the fitted model explains the variability in Number of passenger (NPAX) which is 96.8124%.  The Hypothesis testing reveals that National Disposable Income and Air fare have strong statistically significant relationship with the demand for domestic air travel with P-value of 0.0013. Moreso, there is statistically significant relationship for National Disposable Income, Average Airfare, and Crude oil price with P-value of 0.0017 and 0.0445 respectively. Furthermore, forecast of the number of passengers and average airfare was carried out using ARIMA (1,0,0) model which made available the future predicted values for the number of passenger movement and average airfare for the next 10-12 years to come.  Thus, the study recommends that stakeholders in the air transport sector should work towards improving the capacity and infrastructure to accommodate the growth of air travel demand for domestic air travel in Nigeria. Policy implications were made on how to regulate the sector by having a good pricing policy to control the air fare for the industry.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    An empirical study of air transport demand forecast in Nigeria


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2023




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Unknown




    DEMAND FORECAST GUIDANCE SYSTEM AND DEMAND FORECAST GUIDANCE PROGRAM

    HORIE YASUNORI / ASAKAWA MASAMI / SAKASHITA KOICHIRO | European Patent Office | 2021

    Free access

    Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport

    Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio | Online Contents | 2006


    Using Input-Output to Forecast Freight Transport Demand

    Costa, Paolo | Springer Verlag | 1988


    DEMAND FORECAST DEVICE

    ISHIGURO SHIN / KIKUCHI HARUKA / FUKAZAWA YUSUKE et al. | European Patent Office | 2019

    Free access

    Unmanned Aircraft Systems Demand Forecast Study

    Hackenberg, Davis L. | NTRS | 2017