Overhead presentation. Alternative power trains are gaining more and more attention. There is a lot of uncertainty in boundary conditions of future power train development concerning economic benefits, customer trends, energy cost, regulation and taxation, emerging countries, infrastructure and cooperation's. Thus it is difficult to predict trends. Nevertheless the future of power train development has significant implications for the individual players and industry structure. For a prediction it is necessary to model hard facts and soft factors. Such an approach should consider the following aspects: - technological development and related costs in power train technology, trends and hurdles such as infrastructure requirements, regional trends and big players' interests, external drivers, e.g. fuel price and taxes, regulations and customer preferences such as price sensitivity and powertrain image. Currently more fuel-efficient powertrain are more expensive. The financial savings from hybridization attract many European consumers, but limited models offered curbs the market potential. Diesel can become the strongest power train in Europe. Main drivers in Europe are hybrids having difficulties to take advantage of their fuel-savings image against the diesel, CNG is not able to widen its cost of ownership advantage, diesel ICE retains attractiveness as the price of engine improvement is offset by steeper price increases of the gasoline engine, fuel cell power train will only play a role in certain niche markets. Hybrid powertrains will be the dominating available alternative power train until 2020 and will accelerate further innovations. Fuel cell vehicles are facing major problems for mass introduction and will only play a role in certain niche markets in the next 15 years.
DRIVE - The future of automotive power
2006
6 Seiten
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
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