Switching from internal combustion engine cars to electric vehicles is envisioned as a cornerstone of decarbonization policy. This chapter explores how the vehicle technology mix could change with decarbonization and what role electric vehicles may play. The chapter provides a systematic review of decarbonization pathways for passenger vehicles. Published pathways indicate that the passenger vehicle fleet must be primarily comprised of zero‐emission vehicles by 2050, in a future consistent with keeping global warming below 2 or 1.5 °C. The fleet share of zero‐emission vehicles ranges between 22% and 90% (median of 62%) in 2 °C scenarios and between 67% and 100% (median of 96%) in 1.5 °C scenarios. Most scenarios envision battery electric vehicles accounting for all or nearly all zero‐emission vehicles in 2050. Battery electric vehicles represent 22–90% (median of 56%) and 67–100% (median of 87%) of the fleet in 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively. A simple quantitative stock‐and‐flow fleet turnover model developed for this chapter shows how the slow turnover of the vehicle fleet poses a significant challenge to such goals. An indicative quantitative analysis using this model shows that reaching a zero‐emission vehicle fleet consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming “well below” 2 °C requires increasing the adoption of battery electric vehicles beyond current trajectories. Achieving 1.5 °C‐consistent zero‐emission vehicle fleet shares requires both rapidly phasing out emitting vehicle sales and significantly accelerating fleet turnover. The scale of the challenge calls for greater consideration of additional transport mitigation measures. Finally, this chapter provides a case study of electric vehicle policy in Norway. This case shows that barriers to the adoption of battery electric vehicles, such as range, charging speed, and consumer awareness, do not prevent them from reaching most vehicle sales in the presence of sustained political commitment and a mix of support measures.
Electric Vehicle Adoption Dynamics on the Road to Deep Decarbonization
The 4Ds of Energy Transition ; 177-205
2022-09-26
29 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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