The evaluation of single-aircraft-pair midair collision risk in the national airspace system is addressed. A nonlinear mathematical function is proposed to model the most significant feature of this risk. The function estimates probability of collision as a function of time to contact. Previous attempts to model collision risk have met with difficulty when faced with the challenge of integrating multiple, uncertain probability density functions for the individual components of risk. This approach sidesteps this problem by finding a psychometric function for collision-avoidance performance. This function is evaluated logically and by curve fitting to flight simulator data from commercial airline pilots in simulated conflict scenarios. Analysis of these data gives preliminary support for the appropriateness of the approach. Properly parameterized, such a function or family of functions could be projected to estimate the probability of collision associated with a planned aircraft maneuver. This is similar to the idea of the “conflict probe” currently being explored by the aviation community in its effort to institute free flight.


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    Title :

    Developing a Probabilistic Metric of Midair Collision Risk


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    1997-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Developing a Probabilistic Metric of Midair Collision Risk

    Knecht, William R. | Online Contents | 1997


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