Different travel cost functions for modeling travelers’ departure time and route choice behavior under uncertainty are investigated; then the principal equivalency of the mean-variance and scheduling approaches in modeling departure time choice is proven analytically. Based on the equivalency, a general cost function is formulated for modeling travelers’ departure time and route choice behavior under uncertainty and applied to an analysis of the departure patterns under uncertainty and a reliability-based dynamic network design problem. The analytical investigation of the departure pattern considering travel time reliability in the individual's travel cost function is presented as an extension of Vickrey's deterministic bottleneck model toward stochastic capacities. The departure pattern is significantly different from that without reliability: travelers depart earlier to reduce travel time variability. This finding (corroborated by simulations) motivated the network design approach including travel time reliability in departure time and route choice behavior. A discrete dynamic network design problem is formulated subject to a reliability-based dynamic user equilibrium, with the cost function derived from the equivalency analysis among different cost functions. Total network costs–the costs of total travel (including travel time reliability) and construction–are minimized. The network design problem consists of optimally allocating link capacities by determining the optimal numbers of lanes for a subset or a full set of links of a potential network. A genetic algorithm with some intelligence is adopted to solve the discrete optimization problem. Use of a small hypothetical network indicates that different network designs may lead to diverse departure distributions among different origin-destination (O-D) pairs over time, directly affecting travel costs. Relatively dissimilar departure patterns among different O-D pairs over time give lower travel costs.
Modeling Departure Time Choice under Stochastic Networks Involved in Network Design
Transportation Research Record
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ; 2091 , 1 ; 61-69
2009-01-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Modeling Departure Time Choice Under Stochastic Networks Involved in Network Design
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