A short-term, real-time system was developed to support traffic management in Beijing. The requirements of a large amount of data and unstable traffic flow are the biggest challenges to such a system. The models and software framework thus should be effective enough to face these problems. The core of such a system is the short-term traffic flow forecast model. Rapid urbanization and transportation development in Beijing have led to traffic flow patterns with some unstable characteristics. The short-term forecast model for an online system thus was designed with the fast-paced trend in mind. The model considers historical data, real-time data, and space data, and it can be updated online. Thus a combined model was developed with three submodels: discrete Fourier transform model, autoregressive model, and neighborhood regression model. Weights of each submodel were based on forecast error. Both the historical forecast error and real-time forecast error were considered. The system was built on a browser–server structure to support combined forecast models. The framework, modules, and interface of this system are introduced in this paper.


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    Title :

    Short-Term Traffic Forecast System of Beijing


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:
    Dong, Shen (author) / Li, Ruimin (author) / Sun, Li Guang (author) / Chang, Tang Hsien (author) / Lu, Huapu (author)


    Publication date :

    2010-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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