First vehicle purchase is a crucial decision as it dictates households’ travel behavior which consequently impacts traffic congestion, emissions, and energy consumption. This paper focuses on investigating first vehicle purchase timing and type choices. The timing of the first vehicle purchase is investigated using a hazard-based duration model. This method accommodates the continuous time dimension of households’ car-free state and transitions to the car ownership state through its termination. Vehicle type choice considers three choice dimensions: body type, vintage type, and presence of technology. A joint discrete choice model is developed for vehicle types which captures the correlation between different choice dimensions. The timing and type choice models are developed in a nested structure using the logsum parameters. The results confirm the presence of significant correlations between vehicle type choices. The timing model also retains a statistically significant logsum from the vehicle type choice model. The study confirms that life-cycle events and longer-term changes, built-environment characteristics of the residence, mobility tool ownership, and socio-demographic attributes are significant determinants of first vehicle purchase decisions. The birth of a child, residential relocation, and the addition of a job are likely to accelerate the first vehicle purchase whereas the loss of a job has the opposite effect. Urban dwellers are likely to take a longer duration to transition from being car-free to owning a car compared with others. The findings provide important insights into the factors that delay the first vehicle purchase decisions and encourage the ownership of more efficient vehicles.
Modeling Households’ First Vehicle Purchase Timing and Vehicle Type Choices
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
2025-05-05
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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