Analysis of historical air traffic is used to determine trends that will assist in traffic forecasting. This process begins with externally supplied forecasts that use econometrics as a base to produce passengers and movements as an output, which is then refined through the results of traffic analysis. The paper begins by defining the service charge structure for Nav Canada and defines two main service charges, one related to departures from Canadian airports and one related to the distance traveled by these flights. From the defined markets, domestic, transborder, south, Atlantic, and Pacific monthly growth rates are examined for potential trends. Although frequency may be a primary driver underlying much of the growth, the service charge structure includes the components of aircraft size (weight) and distance, factors that are not included in external forecasts. The paper presents the growth rates of all three components (frequency, aircraft size, and distance) within these markets to identify potential areas for further analysis and then examines the domestic market in more detail to determine the causes of traffic changes and their impact on a forecast on a month-by-month basis. This analysis also reveals further questions and identifies the need for additional analytical techniques.
Aircraft Traffic Analysis for Forecasting
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ; 2177 , 1 ; 27-32
2010-01-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Aircraft Traffic Analysis for Forecasting
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