This paper reports on the deployment of a predictive model that combines spatial analysis and fuzzy logic modeling to translate expert archeological knowledge into predictive surfaces. Analytic predictive archeological models have great utility for state departments of transportation, and some states have invested millions of dollars in such models. However, classic statistical modeling approaches often require too much data and create questions about whether areas are categorized as low probability because (a) there are no sites or (b) no surveys have been conducted there. However, this process can build robust models around typically sparse archeological data and is not subject to spatial bias. These models are intended to lower overall project costs by identifying corridors with a lower probability of having archeological sites, not to supplant field surveys once a corridor has been chosen. Five influencing factors were defined by archeologists and were calculated with the ArcGIS platform. The archeologists then informed a fuzzy logic induction process that was mapped to output probability functions. These data were geocoded into ArcGIS output surfaces that showed the probability of encountering artifacts. The predictive results were tested through a blind control protocol against cleansed archeological data. These models were shown to perform as well as or better than traditional statistical models and required much less data. The Kentucky implementation includes the superior predictive coverage and, more important, a suite of tools to allow the ArcGIS-competent archeologist to design and execute new modeling routines or to build new models. The availability of higher-quality geographic information systems data will also allow archeologists to update the model.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Expert Systems Archeological Predictive Model


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2014-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Expert Systems Archeological Predictive Model

    Ripy, John | Online Contents | 2014



    Archeological Applications of Advanced Imaging Techniques

    Bearman, Gregory H. / Spiro, Sheila I. / Zuckerman, Bruce et al. | NTRS | 1995


    Time and Space in Archeological Research

    Ostoja-Zagorski, J. / Union Internationale des Sciences Prehistoriques et protohistoriques | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1993


    KEO the Archeological Bird of the Future

    Philippe, J.-M. / Wanegue, J.-J. / International Astronomical Federation | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1998