Accurate lane-change prediction information in real time is essential to safely operate Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) on the roadways, especially at the early stage of AVs deployment, where there will be an interaction between AVs and human-driven vehicles. This study proposed reliable lane-change prediction models considering features from vehicle kinematics, machine vision, driver, and roadway geometric characteristics using the trajectory-level SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study and Roadway Information Database. Several machine learning algorithms were trained, validated, tested, and comparatively analyzed including, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Naïve Bayes (NB) based on six different sets of features. In each feature set, relevant features were extracted through a wrapper-based algorithm named Boruta. The results showed that the XGBoost model outperformed all other models in relation to its highest overall prediction accuracy (97%) and F1-score (95.5%) considering all features. However, the highest overall prediction accuracy of 97.3% and F1-score of 95.9% were observed in the XGBoost model based on vehicle kinematics features. Moreover, it was found that XGBoost was the only model that achieved a reliable and balanced prediction performance across all six feature sets. Furthermore, a simplified XGBoost model was developed for each feature set considering the practical implementation of the model. The proposed prediction model could help in trajectory planning for AVs and could be used to develop more reliable advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in a cooperative connected and automated vehicle environment.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Lane-Change Maneuvers using the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study Data


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2021-03-03




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Typical Acceleration Profiles for Left-Turn Maneuvers Based on SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Data

    McAllister, Arianna J. / Wilkinson, Craig / Siegmund, Gunter P. et al. | SAE Technical Papers | 2021


    Typical Acceleration Profiles for Left-Turn Maneuvers Based on SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Data

    Flynn, Thomas I. / McAllister, Arianna J. / Wilkinson, Craig et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2021


    Deep Learning Approach for Detecting Lane Change Maneuvers Using SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Data

    Das, Anik / Khan, Md Nasim / Ahmed, Mohamed M. | Transportation Research Record | 2022