In order to reinforce the efficiency and initiative of accident prevention for reducing accident loss, the surest way is to strengthen the prediction. In view of difficulties in aviation accident prediction, a prediction method based on Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average (ARIMA) is proposed. In this method, a trial model is first identified for an accident time series, and then the diagnosis is executed with the necessary adjustments. The calculation process including identification, estimation and diagnosis is repeated until obtain a satisfactory model. The example shows that, ARIMA has a good prediction for aviation accident and provides an important technique support for decision-making of aviation safety.


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    Title :

    Aviation Accident Prediction Based on Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average Method



    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2013-08-30


    Size :

    5 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English