In recent years, various countries raced to develop green energy-related industries, and they're seizing the electric car markets actively. However, the current price of electric vehicles is still too high, the most important factor is the motor which accounts for more than 25% of vehicle cost. Therefore, in order to make electric cars become popular sooner, the investment in the R&D of motors must be continued to achieve scale production as soon as possible, so the production costs can be reduced, and the production efficiency can be improved. This research conducted in-depth study of structure, functions, characteristics and the future development direction of the motor system through literature review. The modified Delphi method was used to integrate the opinions of electric car arena, and key factors were developed to understand the key technical trends of current motor systems in electric cars. This was the first contribution. "Markov modified Delphi scenario analysis" was developed by using the scenario planning as the basic framework, then adding the classification of Markov transition key factors in various space time states. In addition to identifying the trends in key technologies, the key technical factors of motor system were used to focus on the possible types of scenario and to develop the trends of electric car motors by 2020. The Markov chain concept was used to describe the technical factors in the five states of the chronicle of future events: changed, unchanged, disappeared, uncertain, and new. That was the second contribution. Finally, the concept of proper combination of the future as proposed by Heiko was used as the basis to develop the scenarios. The combination of a five-state Markov was made to form five scenarios: "basic scenario", "hypothetical scenario I", "hypothetical scenario II", "future scenario", "challenging scenario", etc. The application simulation of future electric cars was depicted through life scenarios. It can accomplish the objectives of integrating electric car's practical engineering technology and system integration. That was the third contribution.


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    Title :

    Foresight scenario analysis of motor system of electric vehicle


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2012


    Size :

    7 Seiten, 2 Bilder, 1 Tabelle, 13 Quellen



    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




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