Confidence in multiphase flow predictions can influence key decisions on the design, location, and operations of pipelines and associated integrated equipment, e.g., separation systems. These decisions in turn can profoundly affect system reliability, operability, safety, and overall project economics. There may be no application where the lack of confidence in predictions is felt more strongly than for long distance tiebacks of pipelines to subsea processing in deep water. The uncertainties and resultant confidence m simulator outputs of the flow regime, pressure drop, entrainment, and in situ velocities dictate the estimated confidence levels for opposing and complementary systems and are key contributors in a decision analysis exercise. Uncertainties in benchmarking data, input data to simulator, and internal models for various phenomena propagate to the simulator outputs of the flow regime, pressure drop, entrainment, and in situ velocities. How these discrepancies are treated will affect the scaling of the simulator to different conditions, where benchmarking data may not exist. This paper aims to raise the awareness of the importance and value of uncertainty analysis in multiphase flow systems, provide a methodology with examples, and identify some of the key gaps in the uncertainty analysis.


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Characterization of confidence in multiphase flow predictions


    Additional title:

    Charakterisierung der Mehrphasenströmungsprädiktionen


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2012


    Size :

    12 Seiten, 8 Bilder, 1 Tabelle, 28 Quellen




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




    Variance and Confidence Intervals for SEA Predictions

    Manning, Jerome E. | SAE Technical Papers | 2005


    Variance and confidence intervals for SEA predictions

    Manning,J.E. / Cambridge Collaborative,US | Automotive engineering | 2005



    Multiphase flow measurement

    Steven, Richard | Tema Archive | 2012


    Multiphase flow in pipes

    Griffith, P. | Tema Archive | 1984