This paper presents a methodology for the simulation of wind power generation time series for future scenarios in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Modeled wind fields from a numerical weather prediction model are used as basis for the model, to be able to derive time series for any location. The wind speed is converted to the power output by means of a physical model taking into account the most important reductions of wind speed and power within this conversion, e.g. park effects or grid losses. Assumptions have been developed about future hub heights, future power curves, the dismantling and repowering of older wind turbines and the availability of offshore wind farms. For simulating the time series of onshore wind farms the model was optimized with the unique basis of power measurements of 87 wind farms. The model was used to generate wind power time series in a high temporal resolution of 15min for all German grid nodes. For verification the model was first used to simulate the situation in 2007. It was shown that the aggregated wind power output matches very well with the extrapolated Germany-wide wind power feed-in. Also, the model is able to accurately emulate storm cut-off situations on average. In a simulation for a 2020 scenario it was found that the full load hours for wind turbines increase from 2007 to 2020 by 14%. Higher hub heights and improved power curves are about equally important for this development. The methodology described in this paper will be used to generate the wind power input for the planning of the future grid infrastructure of Germany as a part of the dena Grid Study II.


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    Title :

    Simulation of future time series of wind power production in Germany by 2020


    Additional title:

    Simulation künftiger Zeitreihen der Windenergieerzeugung in Deutschland bis 2020


    Contributors:
    Knorr, K. (author) / Lange, B. (author) / Callies, D. (author) / Wolff, M. (author)


    Publication date :

    2008


    Size :

    4 Seiten, 9 Bilder, 1 Tabelle, 11 Quellen


    Remarks:

    (nicht paginiert)


    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Storage medium


    Language :

    English