The pace at which new technologies are assimilated into society is driven by trends in the regulatory, budgetary, and societal environments in addition to the pace of technology development itself. This study merges trends in these areas to develop an integrated forecast of the levels to which unmanned aviation can be expected to emerge in the military, air cargo, business, general aviation, and airline aviation segments over the coming 40 years. Three out of every 80 aircraft on an instrument flight rules (IFR) flight plan over the United States are anticipated in this forecast to be unmanned by 2025 and 3 out of 8 by 2050. Portions of this study were originally submitted in 2005 in support of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) for planning the Next Generation (NextGen) air traffic system. The major challenges to airlines accepting unmanned aircraft (as in passenger flight without a pilot onboard) are technology availability, pilot unions acceptance, and customer acceptance. The major technical hurdles are automating see and avoid, approach and landing, and ground operations and have been previously described. Crew Size Trend. The Forecast for 2030/2050: Of the military segment's 10 percent of total IFR air traffic handled in the NAS in 2000, 1.5 percent (0.1 percent of total IFR traffic) is unmanned. However, 26 percent will be unmanned, or some 2.5 percent of the total volume, by 2025, assuming the inventory continues to triple each decade (1400 UASs in 2015 times 3 in 2025 = 4200 of the militarys 16,000 air and rotorcraft). These percentages will likely continue to increase, to some 50 percent, or five percent of total IFR traffic by 2050. These percentages could grow as older model manned aircraft inventories are replaced by smaller inventories of newer models, as has happened for recent aircraft, e.g., 21 B-2s for 190 B-52s and 183 F-22s for 700 F-15s. Segment Number of U.S. Aircraft. In summary 4 percent (3 out of 80 flights) of the IFR traffic handled by the FAA in 2025 is expected to be unmanned and, assuming PASlike inroads into general aviation , 38 percent (3 out of 8 flights) by 2050.


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    Title :

    Unmanned aviation traffic forecast


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2008


    Size :

    10 Seiten, 5 Bilder, 3 Tabellen, 7 Quellen



    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Storage medium


    Language :

    English




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