This paper gives an overview of performing safety risk assessment and providing feedback to the design of advanced air traffic operations with support of Monte Carlo simulation. The motivation for developing such a Monte Carlo simulation approach towards safety risk assessment was the identified need for modelling stochastic dynamic events and interactions between multiple agents (humans and systems) in advanced air traffic operations. The distributed and dynamical interactions pose even greater challenges than those seen in, for instance, nuclear and chemical industries (e.g. Labeau et al., 2000). The paper has explained the key issues to be mastered in performing a Monte Carlo simulation supported safety risk assessment of air traffic operations, and how this fits within a full safety risk assessment cycle. The steps to be followed in developing an appropriate Monte Carlo simulation model has been outlined, including a short overview of multi-agent situation awareness modelling, which plays a key role in the safe organization of cooperation between many pilots and controllers in air traffic. The paper also has explained the need for using stochastic analysis tools in order to develop the necessary speed-up of the Monte Carlo simulations, and has shown a feasible way to validate the simulation model versus the real operation. This assessment approach has been applied to an air traffic example involving aircraft departing from a runway that is occasionally crossed by taxiing aircraft. The results obtained demonstrate the feasibility and value of performing Monte Carlo simulation in accident risk assessment for safety relevant scenarios that are difficult to assess expert based, because of many interacting agents.
Safety risk assessment by Monte Carlo simulation of complex safety critical operations
Sicherheitsrisikobewertung durch Monte-Carlo-Simulation komplexer sicherheitskritischer Betriebsabläufe
2006
21 Seiten, 8 Bilder, 2 Tabellen, 20 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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