Tools and methods able to cope with uncertainties are essential for improving the credibility of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as a decision support tool. Previous approaches have focused predominately upon data quality. An epistemological approach is presented conceptualizing uncertainties in a comparative, prospective, attributional LCA. This is achieved by considering a set of cornerstone scenarios representing future developments of an entire Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) product system. The authors illustrate the method using a comparison of future transport systems. Scenario modeling is organized by means of Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA). Two core elements of FSA are applied in LCI scenario modeling. So-called impact matrix analysis is applied to determine the relationship between unit process specific socio-economic variables and technology variables. Consistency Analysis is employed to integrate various unit process scenarios into the overall cornerstone scenarios, based on pair-wise ratings of the consistency of the levels of socio-economic impact variables of all unit processes. Two software applications are employed which are available from the authors. The study reveals that each possible level or development of a technology variable is best conceived of as the impact of a specific socio-economic (sub-) scenario. This allows for linking possible future technology options within the socio-economic context of the future development of various background processes. In an illustrative case study, the climate change scores and nitrogen dioxide scores per seat kilometer for three technology options of regional rail transport are compared. The results reveal that rail transport remains the best option for future regional transport in Switzerland. The case study demonstrates the general feasibility of the developed approach for attributional prospective LCA. It allows for a focused and in depth analysis of the future development of each single unit process, while still accounting for the requirements of the final scenario integration.
Scenario modelling in prospective LCA of transport systems. Application of formative scenario analysis
Fallstudien bei der prospektiven LCA von Transportsystemen. Anwendung der Formative Scenario Analysis
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment ; 10 , 5 ; 325-335
2005
11 Seiten, 4 Bilder, 3 Tabellen, 41 Quellen
Article (Journal)
English
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