This paper presents an approach to come to an objective, technical 'expert judgement' concerning the potential for further reduction of the exhaust gas emissions of Heavy Duty (HD) vehicles with diesel engine technology. For this purpose, a methodology has been developed which allows to come to a quantitatively substantiated estimate, that will be more than just a rough guess of a possible overall reduction percentage. To illustrate the approach, emission reductions have been estimated for future HD vehicles. The estimations are based on the engine and aftertreatment technologies that are currently being developed (or likely to be developed in the near future), which in technical respect may be expected to be technically matured at a time horizon up to 2020 - 2025. As a reference, the real-life emissions of vehicles with current Euro 3 engine technology are used. The methodology introduced in this paper to estimate the future possible emission reductions of HD vehicles has proven to be a useful tool. It provides a well-structured framework to combine emission effects on different emission contributions. The numerical example in this paper has shown that long-term emission goals set by the Dutch government could be met (except for CO2) for HD vehicles with a diesel engine concept which exploits the full foreseeable improvements in engine and aftertreatment technology. However, this conclusion is only justified from a technological point of view. It should be recognised here that as a follow-up an economical assessment and the development of a legislation framework would be necessary to evaluate if these reductions are actually feasible.


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    Title :

    Heavy duty future emissions prediction methodology


    Additional title:

    Vorhersagemethodologie der künftigen Emissionen von Schwerlastfahrzeugen


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2005


    Size :

    10 Seiten, 4 Bilder, 6 Tabellen, 6 Quellen



    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




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