The long-term development of different types of infrastructure shows a lot of similarities: slow starting, maximum of growth and finally saturation which can be seen in the case of canals, rails, roads and air. Each new transport mode increases the average range of an individual by about one order of magnitude. The extension is a persistent exponential growth in travel range from about 10 km per year in 1800 to 12400 km per year in 1987. Structural changes of the society and economic bursts accompany the steps towards the new transportation technology. If the increase of passenger mileage and goods load mileage is related to the gross domestic product, a time-linked parallel growth process can be stated. Each development cycle shows an emerging growth face, a maturity face tending to saturation and the upcoming of a new round of innovation. Today this development path is identified by the communication and media experts as a networking to a new artificial environment lifting transportation to a new level of quality and is generated by the new quality given by the linkage between the information- and communication technology and the implementation of a value-added services. The central thesis is: 'Technology develops from a prosthesis park and product assembly into a completely networked, artificial, intelligent environment'. Transportation is the central power station of the national economy. Obviously a reduction of the power of expansion in this sector of the transportation system would lead to a lasting affectation of the future process of economic development, provided it would not be compensated. All these effect would be present already for some time if the observed flattening of the quantitative growth in transport would not have been compensated by a qualitative growth in road and air transport honoured by the market. This development is generated by the new quality given by linkage between the information- and communication technology and the implementation of value-added services. The contribution of transportation in combination with the new information and communication technologies to the value added continued to increase during the last years.
Future mobility patterns and scenarios of the long-term development in transport
2002
8 Seiten, 8 Bilder, 7 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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