The Rice University Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) is an operational space environment model of the inner and middle magnetosphere designed to specify charged particle fluxes up to 100 keV. Validation test data taken between January 1996 and June 1998 consist of electron fluxes measured by a charge control system (CCS) on a defense satellite communications system (DSCS) spacecraft. The CCS includes both electrostatic analyzers to measure the particle environment and surface potential monitors to track differential charging between various materials and vehicle ground. While typical RMS error analysis methods provide a sense of the models overall abilities, they do not specifically address physical situations critical to operations, i.e., how well does the model specify when a high differential charging state is probable. In this validation study, differential charging states observed by DSCS are used to determine several threshold fluxes for the associated 20-50 keV electrons and joint probability distributions are constructed to determine Hit, Miss, and False Alarm rates for the models. An MSM run covering the two and one-half year interval is performed using the minimum required input parameter set, consisting of only the magnetic activity index Kp, in order to statistically examine the model's seasonal and yearly performance. In addition, the relative merits of the input parameter, i.e., Kp, Dst, the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora at midnight, cross-polar cap potential, solar wind density and velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field values, are evaluated as drivers of shorter model runs of 100 d each. An effort is made to develop operational tools that can address spacecraft charging issues.
A magnetospheric specification model validation study: Geosynchronous electrons
2000
20 Seiten, 29 Quellen
Conference paper
English
Space Weather Forecasting: Under the Hood of the Magnetospheric Specification Model
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2001
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