Assessment of the reliability of existing or proposed escape, evacuation, and rescue (EER) systems is a vital part of safety management for existing or new offshore installations. This paper will review the fundamental concepts of EER, present new methodologies for both deterministic (expected and/or worst case) and simulation modeling, and present applications of these models to frontier offshore installations. Case studies for open water jacket type production platform operations will be based on those carried out for the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) off the East Coast of Canada, and will include both deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation results. Two principal evacuation systems are used by SOEP and modeled here; namely davit launched TEMPSC and the Skyscape systems. Ways of probabilistically incorporating the interactive effects on the EER process of the initiating accident, seastate and weather, and availability of different rescue modes (standby or passing vessel, helicopter, land, or other platform) are presented and incorporated in the models. Although similar modeling approaches to installations in ice populated waters are used, special technologies relating to the evacuation processes to the ice surface or broken ice zone and ice capable safety craft had to be developed and introduced to complete the reliability evaluation for arctic offshore EER. Also, due to the integral dependence of the safety craft integrity and evacuee survival on ice conditions, a probabilistic procedure realistically yet efficiently simulating the ice conditions was developed and implemented in the model. Finally, for both open and ice covered water installations, integrated expected case and Monte Carlo simulation results are presented and discussed in terms of safety implications and developmental requirements. Conclusions and recommendations for future work are given.
Escape, evacuation, and rescue modeling for frontier offshore installations
2000
8 Seiten, 5 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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