The problem of estimating the trajectory and the launch point of a tactical ballistic missile using LOS (Line Of Sight) measurements from one or more passive sensors (typically satellite-borne) is discussed. The major difficulties of this problem include the ill-conditioning of the estimation problem due to poor observability of the target motion via LOS measurements, the estimation of the unknown launch time, and the incorporation of inaccurate target thrust profiles to model the target dynamics during the boost phase. A ML (Maximum Likelihood) estimator based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is presented that provides both the target state estimate and the associated error covariance, taking into consideration the complications mentioned above. One important consideration in the defense against TBM (Tactical Ballistic Missiles) is the determination of the target position and error covariance at the acquisition range of a surveillance radar located in the vicinity of the impact point. A systematic procedure is given for propagating the target state and covariance to a nominal time, when it is within the detection range of a surveillance radar to obtain a cueing region. An estimate and the error covariance of the (two dimensional) launch position are provided, which can be used to search for the missile launch site. Monte Carlo simulation studies on typical single and multiple sensor scenarios indicate that the proposed algorithms are accurate in terms of the estimates and that the estimator calculated covariances are consistent with the errors.
Trajectory and launch point estimation for ballistic missiles from boost phase LOS measurements
Bahn- und Treffpunktschätzung zur Flugkörperabwehr
1999
23 Seiten, 6 Bilder, 6 Tabellen, 22 Quellen
Conference paper
English
Trajectory and Launch Point Estimation for Ballistic Missiles from Boost Phase LOS Measurements
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