This paper presents an approach to determine manufacturing technology implementation scenarios as a function of time. The optimum paths from the point of view of minimum investment or maximum recurring cost savings are determined and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The logic and the results of a software code created to determine these paths are described. Hybrid scenarios that compromise between the two cases of minimum investment and maximum recurring cost savings are also presented. The approach is based on using a target optimum technology mix that yields the lowest recurring cost with a given probability. This target is determined assuming that all candidate technologies are available immediately and are applicable over the entire structure. Then, the applicability of the candidate technologies as a function of time is determined, and the non-recurring cost associated with process and product development is calculated as a function of time. The applicability and non-recurring cost are used to generate time-dependent implementation paths that reach the target technology mix with lowest investment or maximum yearly recurring cost savings. The technology implementation scenarios as a function of time for helicopter fuselages presented range from the lowest non-recurring cost to the highest savings, with several options in between. The following conclusions can be drawn from the present study. To determine the best way to invest in technologies over time, the maximum applicability of each technology to each candidate application must be known as a function of time. A target optimum technology mix must be determined, such as the one that gives the highest savings with a certain probability. The ability to bring promising new technologies to production-readiness is paramount for getting the best technology mix at any given time. This means that a strong research and development effort focusing on technology evaluation, development, and productionization must be active at all times. The time-dependent implementation of technologies can be reduced to a series of candidate paths over time with several interesting properties such as path independence of the non-recurring cost (under certain conditions). Also, determining the optimum path is amenable to a stage-coach-type problem solution. The high investment and technology applicability limits how quickly the target mix can be reached. In this study, four to five years appears to be the lower limit. It is possible to get very close to the target mix early. It is then advisable to avoid trying to get all the way to the target mix, which would take time and significant additional investment. In this study, three to four additional years may be required with high additional investment to gain just one percentage point in recurring cost savings. The best path over time will depend, among other things, on market conditions, emphases in strategy, and timely availability of investment funds. It is therefore very important to create options that have flexibility in readily switching from one implementation path to another.


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    Title :

    Determination of the optimum implementation plan for manufacturing technologies - the case of a helicopter fuselage


    Additional title:

    Ermittlung erines optimalen Implementierungsplans für Fertigungstechnologien - das Fallbeispiel eines Helikopterrumpfes


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2000


    Size :

    13 Seiten, 5 Bilder, 7 Tabellen, 5 Quellen




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




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