An enhanced Delay Propagation Tree model with Bayesian Network (DPT-BN) is developed to model multi-flight delay propagation and delay interdependencies. Using a set of real airline data, results show that flights have non-homogeneous delay propagation effects. The DPT-BN model is used to infer posterior delay profiles with different delay and scheduling scenarios. The major contribution of the DPT-BN model is to demonstrate how the modelling of non-independent and identically distributed delay profiles is more realistic for the observed delay propagation mechanism, and how robust airline scheduling methodologies can benefit from this probability-based delay model.
Enhanced delay propagation tree model with Bayesian Network for modelling flight delay propagation
Transportation Planning and Technology ; 41 , 3 ; 319-335
2018-04-03
17 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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