Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Forecasting Freight Flows


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Transport Reviews ; 31 , 5 ; 603-624


    Publication date :

    2011-09-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English


    Keywords :


    Forecasting Freight Flows

    Lyk-Jensen, Stphanie Vincent | Online Contents | 2011


    Forecasting tanker freight rates

    Velonias, Platon M. (Platon Michael) | DSpace@MIT | 1995

    Free access

    Freight Modeling and Forecasting

    F. W. Memmott / R. H. Boekenkroeger / D. P. Middendorf et al. | NTIS | 1982


    Freight modeling and forecasting

    McLaughlin, Mary | TIBKAT | 1982


    Predicting intercity freight flows

    Harker, Patrick T. | TIBKAT | 1987