In this study, the statistical properties and predictability of inter-urban highway traffic flows are investigated in a practical case in Heilongjiang Province, China. We build a topology graph of the inter-urban highway traffic flows and analyze its topological structure using the degree distribution. The production and the attraction of traffic zones have a high level of heterogeneity and are strongly correlated with the topology of the inter-urban highway traffic flows. We present the probability distributions of the inter-urban highway traffic and travel distances, which can be fitted by a power-law function and a two-term Gaussian model, respectively. We also present four prediction models for the inter-urban highway traffic flows. The first three models are existing models, namely the gravity model, radiation model, and population-weighted opportunities model. The fourth is a novel multifactor-weighted benefits model that considers population, GDP, and area. We also introduce the concept of the breakthrough threshold to make our model more accurate. A comparative study shows that our model is more suitable for predicting the inter-urban highway traffic flows than the other three models, whether predicting accuracy, cost, or efficiency.


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    Title :

    Statistical analysis and predictability of inter-urban highway traffic flows: a case study in Heilongjiang Province, China


    Contributors:
    Hu, Baoyu (author) / Ma, Yanli (author) / Pei, Yulong (author) / Gao, Wei (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2020-01-01


    Size :

    17 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Unknown




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