Abstract When the service region of ports overlap, consignors’ selecting behaviors for shipping ports become homogeneous to commuters’ choosing behaviors on trips. The commuters’ travel behaviors can be described through a probabilistic model in transportation planning. In this study, we adopt the transportation probabilistic forecast model to forecast port throughput. First, we amend the model with a port attraction coefficient to forecast port throughput distributions between different ports. Then, forecast for each port throughput is obtained by reallocation of regional total port throughput to each nearby port. We use the port of Fuyang as an empirical research in this paper to validate the methodology. Results compared between this method and traditional regression model indicate that this method provides more persuasive reasoning.
Predict Port Throughput Based on Probabilistic Forecast Model
2017-01-01
9 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
Port throughput , Probabilistic forecast model , Port attraction coefficient , Cargo distribution Computer Science , Information Storage and Retrieval , Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery , Special Purpose and Application-Based Systems , System Performance and Evaluation , Simulation and Modeling , Environmental Geography
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